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  1. #21
    MFC Member ProfiForex_Victory's Avatar
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    Default Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 30 - June 3

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


    EURUSD

    Today Monday, the American dollar recorded gains against the euro. This was as the dollar was well boosted by comments coming from Janet Yellen the Federal Reserve chair. These comments pointed strongly in the direction of interest rates hike soonest. Janet Yellen had precisely indicated we could have interest rates in the closest months to come saying it "was appropriate" for the Federal Reserve to increase US interest rates "gradually and cautiously" if the growth in the US labour market as well as the US economy is maintained.
    Thus today we saw the EURUSD pair moving up past 1.1125. This is quite close to 1.1098 which is a 10-week lows it had fallen to overnight.


    There was much reduced trade today as markets in New York and London were shut observing a public holiday. Although European CPI data were quite positive; yet they were not strong enough to push the euro against the dollar as the hopes of interest rates which had been expected for too long had strongly supported the dollar.

    The last time we had hike in interest rates was far back in December last year (which was almost the first time we saw US interest rates hike in about ten years). Janet Yellen had been particularly cautious of increasing interest rates pointing to a weak global economy. Certainly, should interest rates be increased, the American dollar would be the centre of attraction in the market. Also suggesting an interest rate hike soonest were statements coming from James Bullard who is the St. Louis Fed President. According to him today Monday, global markets seemed to be “well-prepared” for a possible interest rate hike from the US this summer, but he didn't dive further into details of what date particularly we could have the policy move.

    Data coming from the United States had already been indicating a strengthening US economy. This is as the anticipated slowdown in the first quarter growth in the US economy was not as sharp as initial estimates had suggested. The US first quarter GDP-Growth had been revised upwards. Gross domestic product had gone up by a margin of 0.8% annual rate- initial estimates had suggested a growth of just 0.5% last month. And then the US economy had gone up by 1.4% according to the US Commerce Department. The EURUSD pair thus went up further moving up to 1.1132; an upward move of about 0.15% from the trough of two and half months the pair had fallen to overnight.

    Support levels:1.0987, 1.1049, 1.1080
    Resistance levels:1.1173 , 1.1235, 1.1266


    EURUSD support and resistance:

    EURUSD indicators:


    Now looking forward. The dollar is looking set to maintain its gains up as the vibrant support from the hopes of Federal Reserve raising interest rates is still fresh. Janet Yellen had said this interest rate hikes would come if the US economy and labour market keeps growing. Thus this week, investors will be critically looking at the very crucial data on the U.S. non-farm payrolls as well. Should data on the U.S. non-farm payrolls be impressively positive, it will greatly increase anticipations of a possible June interest rate hike thus pushing the dollar up further against the euro.


    USDJPY


    The dollar rose to a four-week high against the yen today Monday. This was as a result of Federal Reserve Janet Yellen had given indications of a possible interest rate in the following months. Thus today, the dollar went up rising past 111.00 handle which is a one-month high as the dollar climbed up to 111.39 yen.

    In the last G7 finance ministers meeting which was convened in Tokyo, there was an intense disagreement between Japan and the US pertaining to statements come from Japan of late. These comments had threatened that Japan would intervene should the yen begin its aggressive gains again as it had sometime of late. Taro Aso who is the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso had maintained his stand that those sharp gains we saw in the yen were “one-sided and speculative” and the previous gains of the yen had been "disorderly". US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew had gone against his opinion that the gains which the yen had earlier recorded were not disorderly. Yet today movements in the USDJPY were not inspired by this as the movement in the pair were dominated by Fed statements.

    The rise of the US dollar in the market as of now is majorly due to very realistic hopes of rates increase. According to the reputable CME’s Fedwatch program ( a fed watchtool monitoring US economic policies), the chances that we can see interest rates hike in the meeting by June 14 had notably gone up to about 34% while that of a possible interest rate hike in the policy meeting to hold by June 26-27 had gone up to about 60%. This is about two times of what it posted last month.

    From Japan, demand for the yen as a safe haven had been greatly affected as reports emerged that Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan is aiming to postpone the planned sales tax by over a year. This would mark the second time we have seen a delay in sales tax increase from Japan. Thus today we saw the USDJPY pair rising up to 113.34. This is a move up of about 0.9%. This increase in the currency pair is the peak it had gotten to since the 28th of April.

    As well, data on Japanese Retail Sales had shown a decline. This is the second consecutive month the Japanese retail sales is contracting. The Japanese National Core CPI was not encouraging either as it posted a fall of 0.3%. This disappointing data coupled with a dollar strengthening on the prospects of close interest rates hike had pushed the dollar up against the Japanese yen with the USDJPY pair gaining as far up as 111.44. This move would set the dollar in its most impressive run of gains against the yen for the month of May.

    Support levels:108.68, 109.07, 109.65
    Resistance levels:110.62, 111.01, 111.59



    USDJPY indicators:


    Looking forward, for now, the US dollar is on strong form owing to the comments coming from the Federal Reserve on possible interest rate hike. Investors are heavily expecting that this June, the Federal Reserve would increase interest rates. Should data on US non-farm payrolls coming this week be positive,the dollar will only be stronger, gaining more against the yen.


    GBPUSD

    Today, in early trade, the GBPUSD turned around moving up from a low of 1.4588, the pair gained enough strength to move up to 1.4637. The strengthening British pounds defied the dollars despite statements from the Federal Reserve on potential rise in interest rates.

    Opinion polls which are greatly going against a departure of the UK again from the EU. This seeming possibility that the UK will not leave the EU come the next critical referendum had reasonably boosted the British pound. Just last week, the pair had gone up, increasing for the second straight week. The pair had hovered today around the region of 1.4600 after struggling to break above the 1.4700 handle.

    The pound thus made a recovery today after initially falling to the strength of the dollar when Janet Yellen immediately said interest rates were "appropriate". Job data as well as Investor sentiment will be coming from the United States will be a big decider as to if the Federal Reserve would make announcements of tighter monetary policy when they meet by the 15th of next month. This is just days before we have the very crucial UK referendum.


    As the market went on Today, the odds that we could have an increment in the rates next month had doubled up. This is as federal funds futures which surveys the likeliness of the Federal Reserve raising rates had sprung up their reading for May; with the chances of increase rates rising as far as 30%. Thus eventually the pound fell to the further strengthening dollar as the GBP/USD went down by a decline of about 0.29 percent, dropping to 1.4596.

    Support levels:1.4333, 1.4419, 1.4517
    Resistance levels:1.4701, 1.4787, 1.4885



    GBPUSD indicators:

    Looking into the future, the swings in support of the UK staying in the EU which is yet confusingly followed by swings supporting the UK to leave has caused great uncertainty in the UK; even pressuring the British pound. This uncertainty had even caused investment to drop in the UK as well as the UK service sectors showing decline; this uncertainty is making the pound less attractive now while dollar is going stronger as interest rates look to be increased. Thus the dollar could go up against the British pound.
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  2. #22
    MFC Member ProfiForex_Victory's Avatar
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    Default Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs July 4- 8

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Last week, prices for the EURUSD climbed up by 150 pips; even attempting to break above the resistance line located at 1.1150. Despite this remarkable run up, the overall trend is still bearish. For this to change and the trend reverse to bullish, prices may have to move up by a minimum amount of 300 pips from here. If this doesn't happen, then it is very likely that this week, prices would fall down further even as far as touching the support lines at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000. Prices had actually crossed these support lines before, and would happen again with the trend remaining bearish.


    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Some weeks ago prior to June 23, the USDCHF market has been almost flat with no notable gains from neither the American dollar or the Swiss franc. But since the referendum of June 23, the USD has been gaining on the CHF in face of a weakening EURUSD. Just last week the USDCHF's bullish push to keep gaining was halted as the prices for the pair were drawn down falling on the the 4-hour chart. Thus we can see that the latest push up of the pair is quite dangerous with no solid certainty. This is as the pair could be forced down back into the neutral region the pair was prior June 23. But for this week, the pair has to make big gains to keep the trend bullish.



    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish


    Last week, the GBPUSD hovered around in a neutral region (making no significant losses nor gains) with the possibility increasing that the pair would crash down. On the 4-hour, weekly, as well as monthly charts - there was Bearish Confirmation Patterns. This pointed to the reality that the British pound was yet to fully recover from its losses.There are also the hopes that GBP pairs would still fall further - just in the similar fashion of decline must GBP pairs have been in since the previous two weeks. Although prices could make attempts to sustain their rise up at most by a few hundred pips, at the tail end, the trend for the GBPUSD would still be bearish with the pair more likely to fall. Though it is possible that this month, GBP pairs will still face strong movements.



    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Last week, prices for the USDJPY went flat. Now considering the chances of the USDJPY rising, it is not very likely that prices could make a notable climb up this week. This is because the trend being bearish is very strong now. Thus there is the heavy chance that prices for the USDJPY would still fall down this week. There is thus the likelihood that prices could crash farther down by a minimum of 200 pips at the beginning of the following week.



    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Despite the trend being bearish, prices contradicted this by making an impressive rise of 250 pips last week.There are supply zones located at 115.50 and 116.50. This week, it is possible prices might cross this zones. But then we don't see a quick end to the bearish trend for the EURJPY. In fact in the behavior of other JPY pairs, the EURJPY could fail to make a recovery in the next few months thus maintaining a downtrend. But this doesn't mean we will not be seeing gains from the EURJPY at all across this span of time.
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  3. #23
    MFC Member ProfiForex_Victory's Avatar
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    Default Forex Analysis and News for major currency pairs July, Week 3

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


    Here’s the market outlook for this week:


    EURUSD
    Price Trend: Neutral

    There was no significant movement in the EURUSD last week. The pair was stuck in the region between the support line placed at 1.1000 and the resistance line at 1.1150. Although last week Friday, prices attempted to cross below, but then it is very likely prices will remain above the support line at 1.1000. Now for this week, the chances are higher that prices would go up such that the EURUSD may rise as far as crossing the resistance levels 1.2000 before this week runs out.

    EURJPY
    Price Trend: Bullish

    Last week the EURJPY rose up by 700 pips. Thus on the 4-hour chart, this gain formed a bullish confirmation pattern. Though as Friday came, the pair went down by over 200 pips on Friday. At the moment, the Bullish Confirmation Pattern is still valid. With this in mind, it is thus possible for prices to further go up this week. The trend will reverse from an uptrend to a downtrend should prices fall below 114.00 which is a significant demand zone.



    GBPUSD
    Price Trend: Bearish


    Just in line with expectations, the GBPUSD made an attempt to rise up. Despite the push up, the trend remains downwards. A number of other GBP pairs like the GBPNZD and the GBPJPY had made attempts to push up too. The GBPJPY even went as far as climbing up by 1300 pips. Prices for the GBPUSD had moved up by a margin of 550 pips finishing the run up at 1.3480. At this point, the pair began crashing again. A bullish signal is forming on the 1 hour charts and the 4 hour charts, but then the general outlook for the GBPUSD remains bearish though it is possible prices may move up even turning the general trend upwards.



    USDJPY
    Price Trend: Bullish

    As against what was anticipated, the price went up notably across last week (this increase was shared by other JPY pairs). The USDJPY remarkably moved up by 550 pips which pushed prices up to 106.00. With 106.00 being a supply level. Consequently there was a slight fall in prices last week Friday. At the moment, we have a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. What this implies is that there is the solid chance that prices would still move up. One thing that could prevent this is the American dollar getting weaker. This could cause a lot of traders to sell the dollar.


    USDCHF
    Price Trend: Bullish
    Despite major attempts by the USDCHF to fall down,the pair managed to avoid a big crash last week. Prices impressively moved above 0.9850 which is a crucial resistance level. But then the move up was not strong enough to push the USDCHF to the resistance level at 0.9900. This very resistance level at 0.9900 has been one significant resistance level which prices have struggled to break above. Prices experienced a brief bearish correction on Wednesday and Thursday, yet this doesn't change the direction of the trend from being upwards. Prices may even move higher this week but there are some conditions that may play against the further move up. The first condition is that the CHF could gain strength any time for the month of July. The second condition is that the American dollar may lose strength by Friday this week. Thus the uptrend would be maintained for the USDCHF unless one of the above conditions happens.
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  4. #24
    MFC Member ProfiForex_Victory's Avatar
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    Default Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs July, Week 4

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


    Here’s the market outlook for this week:

    EURUSD
    Price Trend : Bearish

    This past week, the downtrend got stronger, with the EURUSD falling lower by 100 pips. This fall dragged the EURUSD down such that the pair on Friday closed above 1.0950 which is a support line.
    Existing for the EURUSD is a “sell” signal in the market. This has the possibility of testing the support lines at 1.0900, 1.0850 as well as 1.0800 for the next four days. Across this week, we expect the dollar to get stronger. Last week, there was no significant movement in many of the big pairs, but then there is a greater chance the major pairs would make big movements this week.

    EURJPY
    Price Trend: Bullish

    The pair made a significant move to rise, but it halted at 118.46. Considering the strong possibility that the JPY pairs could fall this week, it becomes likely that the pair may drop down below the demand zones located at 115.50, 115.00 and 114.50. Now should prices fall below 114.00 which is a crucial demand level, the trend may turn downwards causing prices to crash.


    USDJPY

    Price Trend: Bullish
    Last week, the USDJPY had gone up by 200 pips. This rise brought it very close to the supply level at 107.50. An attempt to move higher for the pair broke down as the USDJPY dropped down by about 150 pips. Despite the fact that on the 4-hour chart,we see a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, there is still a bearish trend for JPY pairs across the next four days. Having this in mind,we see that that the pair may even fall lower this week. The only likely thing to prevent this decline is the USD getting stronger.


    GBPUSD
    Price Trend: Neutral

    There was sideways movement for the pair for last week that made the short-term trend look neutral. Yet for this week, we expect the pair to see big movement in the pair up and down which may eventually cancel out. The pair may attempt to push up but may find this difficult owing to a strengthening dollar. There are the expectations of mixed results for GBP pairs. The reason behind this is that the GBP currency pair could gain strength against some currencies which includes the NZD and the AUD. But then the GBP may get weaker against the Japanese yen.



    USDCHF
    Price Trend: Bullish

    Despite many attempts to fall down, the USDCHF managed to keep its way up. This was actually impressive considering that there was not much gain above 0.9800 which is a crucial support line. There is yet one point that the pair is struggling to break past. This is the resistance level at 0.9900. But then there is hope for the USDCHF to break above this week. Movement in the USDCHF this week is very crucial as it is necessary for the pair to cross this 0.9900 resistance level so as to avoid falling back. One factor that will contribute to the push up for the pair is the USD getting stronger.
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  5. #25
    MFC Member ProfiForex_Victory's Avatar
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    Default Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs August, Week 1

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


    Here’s the market outlook for this week:

    EURUSD
    Price Trend: Bullish

    Last week, the EURUSD began a move up. It had climbed up by 230 pips, rising up to 1.1195; such that it had closed above 1.1150 which is an important support line. The signal in the market for now is to buy and there is good chance the EURUSD will keep on increasing. As noted earlier, the big pairs (except the GBPUSD) had experienced greater movement as compared to what they saw between July 18 to 22. This week, there is a great possibility that the EURUSD will keep rising up, with the euro making gains against major pairs in this new month. Where the euro may actually fall is against the Japanese yen.



    EURJPY
    Price Trend: Bearish

    Just similarly to many other JPY pairs, the EURJPY had fallen down on Monday, as well as dropping down further on Tuesday. But then the decline temporarily stopped on Wednesday and Thursday with a brief increase. Yet on Friday again, the EURJPY dropped down approaching 113.94; which is a decline of about 250 pips. Thus it is right to say the EURJPY could fall further this week.



    GBPUSD
    Price Trend: Neutral

    Another sideways movement of prices confirms the tight equilibrium phase. But then it is very likely we will have a strong breakout of about 500 pips this week or the second week of August. This month there stands to be increases in the GBP against the NZD, AUD, but then the GBP could suffer losses against the yen; even falling down against the American dollar.


    USDJPY
    Price Trend: Bearish

    Just as we were hoping for, the trend turned downwards - falling down last week by 450 pips. The USDJPY made strong attempts to rise up, but then the pair fell on Friday. We expect the USDJPY this week to rise to crucial demand levels at 101.50, 101.00 and 100.50. Though this may end up not happening if the USD gets stronger. But then for this month, the chances are higher that the USDJPY may even fall further.




    USDCHF
    Price Trend: Bearish

    Price had fallen notably last week owing to the fact that the USD grew weaker. This was not actually what we were expecting. The USDCHF had suffered a setback even after it has risen by over 90 pips at first; getting to 0.9950 which is a resistance level. The USDCHF went on dropping by over 295 pips; eventually falling to 0.9635 from a high of 0.9949. The 0.9635 is a weekly low. As of now in the market, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. This week, it is very possible that the pair would fall further, provided the USD doesn't get stronger.
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