Thread: Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs

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AUD/USD
Current trend
On Monday, the pair was in an upward direction.
There is growing pressure on the pair in face of concerns regarding a slowing Chinese economy which gained an increase following the weakening of the Yuan against USD, a percentage exceeding 1.5%. For now, investor nurse worries about a drop in demand in China for commodities and a move to damp currencies, which include the Australian Dollar.
In Australia, data coming out on Friday indicated a drop in Retail Sales as compared to the last month to 0.4% which added pressure on the pair.

Support and resistance
A week ago, the price broke down on the lower border of an ascending which was short termed as the price broke down the lower border of a short-term ascending channel at the 0.6908 level as well as fall in the direction of 0.6800 and 0.6700.
The pair is trading on the daily chart close to the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The MACD histogram happens to be in the negative zone with an increasing volume. The RSI is also close to the oversold zone.
There is suggestion from the indicators that the pair could further decline.

Support levels: 0.6908, 0.6800, 0.6700
Resistance levels: 0.7076, 0.7200, 0.7360

Trading tips
Open short positions from the 0.6900; targets at 0.6800, 0.6700 and then stop-loss at 0.6920.
Open long positions after the price has consolidated on top the 0.7080 level; targets at 0.7200 with 0.7050 as stop loss.


USD/CHF
Current trend
The USD/CHF fell last week showing choppy trading.
The USD/CHF came under heavy pair owing to discouraging macroeconomic data coming from China which produced serious worry on the market even pushing investors to transfer their funds into safe-haven currencies, one of which is the franc. It faced moderate pressure from data emanating from Switzerland. There was no change in the unemployment rate as it remained at 3.4% and then there was a fall of 1.3% in December for the Consumer Price Index as measured against a November fall of 1.3%.
Also at that very period, when the week finished, the pair got support getting more strengthened following the release of a strong labour market data which was quite unexpected.

Support and resistance

There is horizontal movement on the daily chart by the Bollinger Bands. MACD is falling hence bringing forth a sell signal which is a strong one. Approaching the oversold zone is the Stochastic which reduces the chances of a further drop.
The indicators suggest that we wait for more convincing and clear signals to trade with.

Support levels: 0.9900 (this is a local low), 0.9879 (this is also a local low), 0.9851 (a low of December 24)
Resistance levels: 0.9944 (this is a local high), 1.0000 (this happens to be a vital psychological level), 1.0032.

Trading tips
Open long positions following the breakout of the 1.0000 level with 1.0130 targets and stop loss placed at 1.0130.
Open short positions following the breakdown of the 0.9900 with targets at 0.9800 as well as stop loss at 0.9940.

EUR/USD
Current trend
When last week finished, the pair noticeably got strengthened in face of heavy macroeconomic statistics coming from the United States.
Released Non-Farm Payroll came out at 292,000 which were reasonably more encouraging than forecasts had predicted. Also occurring at that very time, the pair came under pressure from data released on the Consumer Credit Change. There was no change in the Average Hourly Earnings despite a 0.2% predicted growth.


Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.0900 and then
Resistance levels: 1.0993

Trading tips
Open short positions from the 1.0993 level with targets at 1.0942 taking 1.1015 as stop loss.

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USDJPY

On Monday, the pair was in an upward direction.
There is growing pressure on the pair in face of concerns regarding a slowing Chinese economy which gained an increase following the weakening of the Yuan against USD, a percentage exceeding 1.5%. For now, investor nurse worries about a drop in demand in China for commodities and a move to damp currencies, which include the Australian Dollar.
In Australia, data coming out on Friday indicated a drop in Retail Sales as compared to the last month to 0.4% which added pressure on the pair.

Now moving on to the technical side of it, on the daily chart, Bollinger Bands is going in a downward direction as the price is getting more narrow from the top. Also, MACD is making an attempt to turn up yet maintaining a signal which is a sell. Looking at the stochastics, it is turning down.

The recommendation from the indicators is for us to be more patient for trading signals which are clearer.
So we have support levels as: 117.00, 116.68, 116.50 (which is the low for January 15).
Resistance levels are: 117.00, 118.00, 118.35 ( which happens to be the high of January 13).

Trading Tips

Open long positions following the breakdown of the 117.44 level with targets at 120.00 setting stop loss at 116.84.

Open short positions after the 117.00 level has broken down with targets at 116.00 making use of 117.40 as stop loss.


EUR/USD:

On the side of news, on Thursday saw the Chinese and American stock indices grow but as soon as Friday, it was falling already. On Friday last week,general market sentiment favours switching funds into the Yen which was a safe-haven asset.
As of now,more attention is paid to the Retail Sales as well as US data on industrial production for the month of December.
Moving over to the technical analysis proper, last week, the EURUSD was moving on a daily chart in an ascending channel having upper border fixed near a 1.1285 level.

Limiting the growth of the pair is a very resistance level set at 1.0900, 1.1030, 1.1130. Something which could have increased the speed at which the the EURUSD may fall more is the breakdown of the trend at the 1.0865. It is therefore possible that the price will maintain a position close to 1.0900 maybe till Thursday this week where we would have the next ECB meeting as regards monetary policy.


There is no clear trading signal from the Stochastic.

We have support levels at: 1.0865, 1.0800, 1.0760
Resistance levels are: 1.0900, 1.0975, 1.1000

Trading Tips

Open long positions above 1.0910 with targets at 1.0975 and stop loss at 1.0880.
Open short positions below a 1.0860 level; place targets at 1.0810.


GBP/USD

Last week, the pair added more strength. The British pound gained reasonable strength from the decision of the Bank of England on its monetary policy. Confirming expectations, we saw that the regulator didn't make a change to it so the key interest rate was left at its last levels.

On the technical side however, we saw the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart moving as the price range narrowed. Also the stochastic is close to the oversold region while the MACD is making a move to turn up yet maintaining its last sell signal,


Thus we have support levels at : 1.4351, 1.4300, 1.4250.
Resistance levels at: 1.4450, 1.4530, 1.4600.

Trading Tips

Open short positions after the breakdown of the 1.4360 level; set your targets at 1.4300 and stop loss at 1.4400.

Open long positions should prices consolidate above the 1.4470 level with targets at 1.4550 and stop loss at 1.4420.

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs January 25-27


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USDCHF

Current trend

The USD hits a fresh local high; added more strength against the Swiss Franc on Friday. Suggestions from analysts point out that the USDCHF is experiencing a growth as the Bank of Japan and the ECB made announcement as to possibly adding measures to increase economic growth.

Moving to the technical side.

Support and Resistance


On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands indicator is slowly moving up as the price range is actively increasing in width. Nonetheless, there has been a growth in the price with it moving on top the range's upper border. Therefore it is possible to see a downward correction developing. The MACD still maintains its trend in the upward direction still being a buy signal. As for the stochastic, it is directed up at the border of the overbought zone.

The recommendation from the indicators suggest that it is not yet the best time to place new buy orders hence it would be better to maintain existing long positions.

We have our support levels at: 1.0123, 1.0011, 1.0000, 0.9879
Resistance levels: . 1.0145, 1.0200, 1.0239, 1.0258, 1.0300

Trading tips

Open long positions at the current level setting target at 1.0300 using 1.0120 as stop loss.

Open short positions following the breakdown of the 1.0120 level setting target at 1.0032 with 1.0150 as stop loss.


USDJPY

Note that 116.13 provided strong support to USD/JPY .For the USDJPY, intraday bias is still mildly on the upside as we saw that 120.33 turned from support to resistance. On a general outlook, price actions from 125.85 can be seen as a sideway consolidation pattern and we could maintain this stand so long there is the 115.96 support.

In a wider view, there is still progress in the 125.85 medium term top. Here, we can see it as a sideway pattern so we could possibly expect strong support somewhere around 116.13 containing a downside. Yet if there is an extended break of 116.13, it is likely that there would be an extension to 38.2% retracement of 75.56 at 106.63 and below to 125.85; in the corrective fall from 125.85.



Support levels: 117.95, 117.53, 117.5, 115.96
Resistance levels: 118.85, 119.01, 119.6, 120.33


Trading Tips
Open short positions below 118.85 setting targets at 117.95 and 117.5


GBPUSD

The GBPUSD climbed higher up to 1.4363 on Friday after which it went on to trim gains ending the day at 1.4262 which is moderately higher. On the side of fundamental analysis, UK retails sales figure which came up on Friday was not very encouraging. Yet there was a sharp drop in UK public sector net borrowing prompting a rally.

Moving over to technical analsyis, the hourly chat displayed a bullish breakout on Friday which was fake running into offers nearer to collapsing channel resistance in Asia on Monday. Thus it is possible to return to its 5-DMA which we saw on Monday at 1.4213 should the pair fail to take out the 1.4316 falling channel resistance.

It is likely the outlook will become bearish in the event of the GBPUSD seeing a break above 1.4363.


Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3950, 1.3955, 1.4000
Resistance levels:1.4371, 1.4404, 1.4444, 1.4935,

Trading Tips:
Open long positions at 1.4410 setting targets at 1.4935

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GBP/USD

As at when Janaury ended, the GBPUSD had begun recovering from loses in face of releases of supportive macroeconomic data as well a heightened demand for the oversold British currency.
The price kept its place within a narrow ascending channel reaching the resistance level of 1.4400 but then it didn't make it in breaking out. The pair went up to 1.4316 holding above 1.4300 figure yet it doesn't present any directional strength. In the 4 hour charts, the price happens to be above a mild 20 SMA (which is bearish) and then the technical indicators hold on top of their midlines with slopes a little bit positive yet we can't say they have significant momentum.

Moving to a weekly chart, GBPUSD prices rebounded down from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands approaching its local low of 1.4085, also possibly heading towards 1.4020, 1.3900 support level.

Support levels: 1.4230, 1.4230, 1.4172, 1.4110, 1.4109, 1.4085, 1.4000
Resistance levels: 1.42821, 1.4310, 1.4360, 1.4371, 1.4385

Trading Tips
Open short positions at the current level setting your targets at 1.4085 taking 1.4460 as your stop loss.



EURUSD

The pair began the week with a tone which we could say was lightly positive moving through the 1.0845 level during the European morning with an upcoming European PMIs. Data released were mixed which indicated a reduction in the rate of growth in the manufacturing sector in January.
On the side of technical analysis, the pair maintains its move along a descending channel as it traded below the Bollinger Bands' middle MA. The price is still below its moving averages with a direction downwards. The Relative Strength Index turned up moving to retest its MA's.

Support levels: 1.0802, 1.0778, 1.0712, 1.0711
Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0969, 1.0974, 1.1257

Trading Tips

Open long positions from the level of 1.0880 setting targets at 1.0935 taking 1.0855 as your stop loss.

You could alternatively open short positions from the 1.0755 level setting target at 1.0715 taking 1.0795 as stop loss.


USDCAD

The Canadian sustained its growth improving for a second week consecutively. The USDCAD fell by 170 points . Consequently the pair closed at 1.3974, this marks its lowest level in 4 weeks. Much attention is being paid in the market to Employment Change.
The pair began the week at 1.4143 and hastily rose up to a high of 1.4325. The pair made reversals of direction dropping to a 1.3943 low, thus breaking below support at 1.4019. Further the pair closed last week at 1.3974.

Going into a longer term. The uptrend which could be seen from 0.9056 is yet continuing. It is therefore possible to see a 0.9406 projection (putting it at a 138.2% projection) from 0.9406. A break of support coming from a changing 1.3456 resistance is required to the first indication of a possible medium term topping.



Support levels: 1.3966, 1.3811, 1.3800
Resistance levels: 1.4089, 1.4109, 1.4202, 1.4400, 1.4540

Trading Tips:
Sell the pair below the 1.4109 resistance level taking 1.3800 as target.

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EURUSD

The EURUSD currency pair broke out during last week to the upside, as a result it cleared the 1.1050 level. Last week tuesday, the EURUSD gained more strength in face of a reduced likelihood of the market to take risks owing to concerns as regards the global economy. The currency pair had dropped on Friday as we saw the noticeable volatility in the market.

By the time last week finished, the EURUSD pair had dropped considerably owing to mixed data released from the US. As we saw, Nonfarm Payrolls had dropped in January to 151,000 from 262,000. This was really worse then expectations as the market sentiment pointed out to a drop to 190,000. Also occurring at that time, other significant data affecting the pair like the Average Hourly Earnings had increased by 0.5% though predictions from experts were placed at 0.3% growth.


For this week, major news to affect the EURUSD is the speech of Fed Chair Yellen. This will majorly affect the dollar as she take turns to deliver her semi-annual testimony to the US Congress ( the Finance Committee of the two chambers of the US Congress precisely). Should she follow a dovish perspective( that is she is in favor of keeping to low interest rates so as to stimulate the American economy and not worried about inflation), the USD has increased chances of recovering.


Last week the pair had a low of 1.1086 and a high of 1.1184. For now, the intraday bias is neutral. A further rise points in near term to 100% projection to 1.1059 from 1.0517 at 1.3151. Furthermore the EURUSD didn't waste time in reverting the advance to 1.1180 area. The EURUSD is yet losing ground, falling to 1.1093 in early US, possibly dropping to session lows close to 1.120. It is thus possible for the EURUSD to fall to 1.1080. When it reaches this point, it is likely the pair may get back to 1.1165 after which it could still fall to 1.1000. From the chart,14-period Relative Strength indicator is pointing to buy action, the Stochastic with the %K and %D period set at 9 and 6 respectively suggests a buy action too. Then the MACD with the periods of the moving averages at 12 and 26 as well has a buy action. Finally the Average Directional Movement Index with a period of 14 also suggests a buy action equally.

Support levels: 1.0469, 1.0642, 1.0898
Resistance levels: 1.1327, 1.1500, 1.1756

(A chart showing the support and resistance lines)


(A chart showing all the aforementioned indicators)
With a Neutral trend and volatility at 80, a bullish stance is still possible, and then it is likely to get a retest at 1.1245.

Trading Tip: Open long positions from 1.1251 setting targets at 1.1341, take 1.1209 as your stop loss.


USDCAD

Last week, the USDCAD had opened trading at 1.3973 climbing to a high of 1.4103. The USDCAD then went on to reverse directions dropping consequently to a low of 1.3638 with the 1.3587 level still maintaining support. 1.3915 marked the close of the week as the Canadian dollar added more strength reaching its highs as far back last December. The pair went on correction further up after it has gotten to its 3- months low close to the 1.3675 level.
The Canadian dollar was on an uptrend in most of its pairs but in the aftermath of the release of employment data at the end of last week, it had suffered a setback. In the same line, the USDCAD had dropped in face of weak labour market macroeconomic statistics as well as Services PMI which were released in the US. The results had indicated that the unemployment rate had gone up a bit from 7.1% to 7.2% as well as overall employment dropping by 5,700. There was no significant change in participation rate as the one encouraging spot was the 5.6 increase in full-time employed as well as a 11.6 rise in that of part-timers.
As a result of this data, the Canadian dollar retreated against the USD.Focus this week bothers on data on Building Permits in Canada which is to be released subsequently. There is the general expectations that the indicator will grow to 5.6% which may add strength to the CAD. Also much attention this week is given to the speech in Montreal by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada. The market will greatly respond to the prospects of monetary policy coming from Canada.
The USDCAD finished last week a high of 1.3978 and a low of 1.3841. On the USDCAD, Intraday bias is at the moment neutral. The USDCAD is at this point staying above 1.3456 support (which was formerly resistance) inside the medium term rising channel above 1.3456 resistance. The trend is more likely to continue. It is also possible the high of 1.4689 would be retested.

Support levels: 1.3443, 1.3575, 1.3746
Resistance levels: 1.4049, 1.4181, 1.4352

Support on yellow, resistance red On the chart above, the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) with period set at 14 gives a buy action. The stochastic with the %K and %D period set at 9,6 respectively is yet a buy action. The MACD with the exponential moving averages set at periods of 12 and 26 respectively pointing a buy action. The Average Directional Movement Index having a period of 14 has a value making it a buy action.

(A chart showing the afforemetioned indicators)
The Canadian dollar has been posting good gains in the last two weeks yet we can't say it is yet invulnerable, trading near the 1.40 line. With volatility at 100%, we expect the trend to be up.


Trading Tip:
Open short positions from 1.3830 setting targets at 1.37100 with stop loss placed at 1.3900.



AUDUSD

Last week, the AUDUSD added more strength as it experienced a drop in expectations concerning the Fed raising interests rates. New York Fed President Williams Dudley has called for more patience pointing out the need for the regulator to consider the complex situation of the global economy as its decides on further monetary policy in the US. The USD faced increased pressure following the release of discouraging data from the Institute for Supply Management on Non-Manufacturing PMI. The indicator had dropped from 55.3 to 53.5. This market it worst dating far back to February 2014. Last week, the rebound from 0.6826 went higher beating what we expected of its strength. Yet this doesn't initiate a trend reversal yet hence it was still yet taken a correction.



Last week, the pair finished with a high of 0.7129 and a low of 0.7052. At the moment, the AUDUSD is neutral, rebounding from 0.6826 which we have addressed as a correction. Should there be a break of 0.7001 minor support, it will reverse bias to the downside thus retesting the low of 0.6826. We are still seeing 0.6826 as correction as above 0.7241 will initiate another rise. We maintain cautiousness on a vehement resistance below 0.7384 to restrict upside to finish the rebound.
On the chart, we see that the Relative Strength Index, the stochastic, the MACD as well as the ADX are all suggesting sell action.

Support levels: 0.6825, 0.6933, 0.7107
Resistance levels: 0.7173, 0.7281, 0.7347


(A chart showing the affforemntioned Indicators)

From a technical point of view the main trend on the weekly chart is downward, it is likely the main trend will turn up when the 0.7384 swing top is removed. . We could possibly see the beginning of a downtrend if we see a trade through the 0.6826 swing bottom.

Trading Tip:
Buy the AUDUSD pair at the 0.6827 level setting target at 0.7565

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EURUSD

On the 11th of February, the local high of the EURUSD pair was tested. Consequently, there was a downward correction in price movement; this was majorly due to macroeconomic statistics which were not too encouraging.

On Thursday last week, the fall in the EURUSD continued as Germany's macroeconomic data as well as that coming from the Eurozone was way off general market expectations. The GDP for Germany suffered for the fourth quarter, getting reduced by 1.3%, this was very contrary to a general market sentiment of growth over 2.2%. Equally in that same fourth quarter, the EU GDP as well dropped a little above 1.45%. As data released last week further revealed that there was a decline in the Industrial Production as it dropped on a monthly basis of -1%; going extensive on an annual basis, we saw that the Industrial Production has fallen to -1.3%.

This was really off-track signs of a EURUSD recovery were very sound as the pair had increased by over 0.98% on Tuesday, even rising to a level we have not seen in over eleven weeks, owing to the sustained decline of the American dollar in face of heavy anticipation surrounding Janet Yellen (Fed Chair) appearance.


Subsequently on Thursday, Janet Yellen gave indications that the expected hike in interest rates could possibly hold off a little further getting delayed. This greatly affected the American dollar as it suffer a decline against most of its principal currencies.

Going into details, Janet Yellen aired her perspective that the economic condition of the United Stated at present will still give the Federal Reserve reason not to stop raising rates.

In relation to Janet Yellen's declarations, the Regulators till maintains its caution as its gets more possible that by the next monetary policy coming up in March, we are not likely to see noticeable alterations in interest rates. Thus for this week, the EURUSD is likely to be majorly affected by Mario Draghi's speech. Also to affect the EURUSD in course of the week is the minutes of meeting from ECB meeting.


Last week the EURUSD opened last week at 1.1237, reaching a high of 1.1262 as well as a low of 1.177. On Monday this week, the American dollar continued to be well higher as compared against its principal contemporaries ( currencies). The EURUSD traded at 1.1179; this marks a fall by a margin of 0.68%. There is a continued lower correction from the peaks which marked the 8th to 12th of February. As earlier said, the speech of Mario Draghi is influencing the EURUSD causing it to move around the area of 1.1200. 1.0539 and 1.1494 defines the principal range. As trades were conducted in the market above a retracement zone centered around 1.1017 to 1.1129. There is yet the possibility of this zone being tested owing to the downside momentum. On the chart the Relative Strength index (RSI) gives a buy signal, this is same with the ADX and the MACD. The stochastic oscillator gives a buy signal as well.


Support levels: 1.0959, 1.1050, 1.1150.
Resistance levels: 1.1341, 1.1432, 1.1532





Chart showing support and resistance levels




Chart showing indicators attached

Forecast:

With volatility placed at 73% for the pair, the EURUSD is on a decline; it is thus even more possible for the to maintain continuity in decline on the downtrend. Looking critically into this, consolidation and breakdown which comes under the 1.0970 level would make the premise for the EURUSD to yet drop further to about 1.0940.




GBPUSD

On Wednesday, the GBPUSD pair dropped very noticeably in face of discouraging data published from the United Kingdom, which were even more downbeat than expected. There was a 0.4% reduction in Industrial Production and then Manufacturing Production had also declined by over 1.6%.

Furthermore, there was increased pressure on the pair following what Janet Yellen said in her testimony to the US Congress. Thus as earlier mentioned, the Regulator's position as concerning monetary policy didn't really experience any change as we expect to see speed of possible hikes in US economy to be induced from the situation of the US economy as well as the world financial markets.


On Wednesday,we saw that the British pound was climbing up as against the American dollar owing to improvements we saw in the market sentiment, but them we saw gains for the pair suffering limitations as industrial output from the United Kingdom saw a decline which was significantly its highest in over forty months! Prior to the release of the data,we saw that the GBPUSD was by a percentage of 0.22 on the upside.

In the morning of European trading session on Friday, the pair had touched 1.4528 ( this evidently marred the high of the session as the pair had its consolidation later on at 1.4511 adding on over 0.25% as gain. Consequently, it became very likely for the pair to locate its support around 1.4380 as well as meet a resistance put at 1.4579 where that point indicated a significant high of Wednesday.

On a general basis, the pair was not noticeably altered within the span of 8-12 of last month. The GBPUSD opened the week at 1.4497 recording a weekly high and low of 1.4535 and 1.4457 respectively.
For 15-19th of February, data pertaining to retails sales as well as inflation data will play a major influence in price movement. This indicator has not really been commendably encouraging in its past releases as for December 2015, it ran negatively past a forecasted -0.1% up to a disappointing reading of -1.0%. Generally, we expect a vehement reversal in the report for last month say above 0.75% at least.

For Monday, price direction is neutral as to consolidating on top of a brief low of 159.79. Since the day began today, the pair has been hovering about a level of 1.4500 despite variations in market psychological sentiments.

On the chart we see that the Relative Strength Index gives us a sell signal. The stochastic is oversold and then the MACD is telling us to sell as it is moving above the signal line. The ADX as well is a sell signal.


Support levels: 1.4307, 1.4375, 1.4434
Resistance levels: 1.4561, 1.4629, 1.4688



Chart showing attached indicators as well as support and resistance levels


Forecast:

As said inflation data is going to play a major role in price movement though for the UK and US, numbers have not been too encouraging as to data. The trend could be neutral as if prices could possibly consolidate on top a level probably 1.4670, it could become as sound possibility of the GBPUSD to maintain its growth towards 1.5498.




USDJPY

Last week Wednesday, the USDJPY was not showing signs of upturning its decline in face of a global economy which momentarily lost direction owing a well reduced possibility of increments in US interest rates. Consequently on Friday last week, the American dollar went up distinctly which clamped down on its continued fall (which earlier on ran into four days) by which we had seen a drop over 3.8% which shot up alarm in investors as they ran to find succor in the safe haven currency (JPY). The USDJPY pair had its trades within an interval of 113.55, a broad range spanning into 111.72. It went further to have its close at 113.22. This was barley 24hrs after the yen had pulled up a high we have not since October 2014 against the dollar at 110.98. We saw for the first fourteen days of February, the American dollar dived down by over 6.5% as we saw that out of 10 sessions, the USD closed higher against the Japanese yen just twice.


The USDJPY thus opened last week at 113.42, reaching a low and high of 1.4457 and 1.4535 respectively. For this week, the news to put our attention will concern inflation data as it will give us a solid clue as to if Janet Yellen and the Fed would still make increments to interest rates any time soon. Also Mario Draghi as earlier mentioned from the European Central Bank would give his testimony in Brussel today in presence of the European Parliament committee on monetary and economic policy.


For Monday this week, the USDJPY gained support as data emerging from Asia with Japan in particular were not too encouraging. For the fourth quarter of last year,we saw GDP for Japan on the decline tightening by over 1.3%. There was no compensation from Industrial Production as it emerged more discouraging than we expected it, sitting at -1.9%.

On lower timeframes, the 100 simple moving average is moving below the the USDJPY. We haven't seem this since twelve days now. Indicators like the RSI is giving a buy signal, just the same as the Stochastic oscillator as we see the same signal prompting to buy from the ADX and MACD as well.


Support levels: 112.74, 113.00, 113.14
Resistance levels: 113.54, 113.80, 113.94



Chart showing attached indicators as well as support and resistance levels


Forecast:
For last week, the USDJPY dropped to a low I earlier mentioned we have not come across since October 2014. If we bring into consideration mixed data from the United States as well as the increased general risk aversion on the part of investors, it becomes more probable a continuity in the downtrend.

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EURUSD

Last week on thursday, the EURUSD saw a slight drop in an aftermath of minutes which emerged from meetings convened by the ECB and the Fed pointing out to sustained difference in the policy direction of the two banks which rank among the world's elite banks. Consequently that Thursday, the EURUSD held trades within a region marked on the extreme by 1.1150 (peak) and on the least by 1.1071 as it went further to settle at around 1.1103, this is a distance of over 0.14% drop on the session. The euro dropped by a margin of over 1.10 which stood as low of the session. With not much losses, the euro suffered a continued losing streak, seeing a loss for the fifth consecutive time against the dollar, this as well numbers as the seventh loss the euro has suffered counting back the past ten sessions.

As the week went further on Friday, the EURUSD saw some scrap gains which did well to terminate a losing streak which had extended to its fifth day in face of encouraging US inflation data which added more strength to the debate over whether interest rates could should be further altered by the US Fed Reserve. The EURUSD went on that day to trade around 1.1068 extending into 1.11367 which forms a rise over 0.21% on the session. If we remember, tracking back to February 3 where the euro posted a climb exceeding 1.64%, the euro for the past fourteen days have been flat relatively when compared with the American dollar. 1.0538 denoted the support the pair had gained (which also happens to be the low from the 3rd of December 2015) consequently coming across 1.1496 which was acting as a resistance.

The EURUSD finished last with a high of 1.1124 as well as a low of 1.1004 after opening the week at 1.1044. On Monday this week, the euro was dropping further against the USD, this driving the pair to test lows of several weeks somewhere around 1.1020.
We see further that the EURUSD is drawing back almost by a 0.01USD since highs for Monday in a band defined by 1.1120 and 1.1125 as more investors are going for the USD owing to oil prices which made a notable step-up. This Monday, the week began on the losing side, trading at European session around 1.1059 as the USD dragged on its gains (when put against other principal currencies which ascended it to a new two-week high in face of encouraging US inflation data still maintained its continuity in lending support for the USD. EURUSD suffered a significant drop dropping down to a point which is the least it has previously fallen to in about twenty one days amid investors maintain a close a watch on European PMIs release including surfacing signals that the UK could be on its way out of the EU should a very defining referendum convene fourth months from now. Also to majorly affect the EURUSD for the week is data released on the German IFO Business Climate report. It is possible to see further easing from the ECB.NAlso to affect the pair in course of the week is data to be released on Thursday on US Durable Goods orders.


On the chart, we see that technical indicators like the RSI gives a sell signal, the stochastic is oversold while the MACD and the ADX equally give a sell signal.


Support lines: 1.0876, 1.0971, 1.1051
Resistance lines: 1.1226, 1.1321, 1.140



Image: chart showing indicators attached


Forecast:

For now, the EURUSD has maintained its sad slide down from the highs with the USD showing strong recovery of late, it is most likely the downtrend would continue a while longer. Hence the trend is more like bearish.


USDCAD

On thursday last week,the CAD added more strength when brought into comparison with the USD in face of recovering oil prices. The CAD saw considerable improvements, going on to install 1.3845 as the point where it had its week close.

In Canada last week, there was a decline in retail sales as it saw a drop amounting to over 2.1% for December 2015 as last month for November, we had seen an increase in excess of 1.6%. Again last week further data reveled that the Consumer Price Index had recorded a tick up in the size of 0.2% which surpassed general predictions that it could down tick in the size of 0.6%.

Some hours later, the next day Friday we saw a distinct growth in the USD as compared against the CAD; this as a result of the giant spur it took from the encouraging data on US
inflation as the recovery of oil prices began to wind down amid a rather disappointing data on retail sales released Canada. On early US trade on Friday therefore, the pair had reached 1.3847 which was assumed position as the high of the session. As trading went further on Friday, the pair earned its consolidation at 1.3847 which is a move forward, going further by an advancement of over 0.83%.
Last week, the USDCAD opened the week at 1.3779 going on to set a low of 1.3662 and a high of 1.3792. On Monday, the American dollar had backslid against the CAD as recovering oil prices had provided a great lift-up to the CAD (which is famous for been well connected to commodity). As at early US trade, we saw that the pair touched 1.3687. This point distinctively stands out as the we have seen from the USDCAD since Thursday last week. Consequently the USDCAD gathered consolidation at 1.3698. There was heightened possibility of the USDCAD attaining support around 1.3647 and then a likely resistance coming at a region of 1.3898 close to the high we borrowed from Wednesday last week as the CAD as mentioned had been greatly boosted as we saw a climb back above $33/barrel for oil prices.

Very likely to affect the pair this week is the speech from the deputy governor of Bank of Canada (BOC) as he would be speaking on Wednesday in Sudbury. This speech will well affect the USDCAD as investors are maintaining close watch in the market as they hope to spook out any tiny signal for what the BOC plans pertaining to moves concerning interest rates. On the chart we see that the Stochastic is giving a buy signals the relative strength index is giving a sell signal,the MACD too is a sell and the the ADX is as well as a sell.

Support lines: 1.3568, 1.3641, 1.3706
Resistance lines: 1.3844, 1.3917, 1.3982



Image: chart showing indicators attached


Forecast:

The US economy is losing speed but then we had the inflation data and employment data from last week excellently surprising us all. In this view it is possible we could yet see movement in interest rates come next month. And then the Canadian dollar recovery fed from improved oil prices, there is no clear direction of trend but then we still have seen a stop in the moderating momentum signals as we keep an eye out for gains on top of 1.3900.





USDJPY

The pair last week crept up to reach highs marked at 114.87, as the week dragged on, the pair executed a test of the resistance placed at 114.65. Following this,the USDJPY experienced a reversal dropping down consequently to 112.30 ( this point being a low as well). At the tail end, the pair finished on February 19th at 112.52. Overall last week marked a sound week for the yen as the USDJPY dropped heavily down losing about 98 points in course of the fall.

On Thursday last week, the yen suffered a little drop in early Asia, this came before a very hectic day which was suffocated with data releases in the region as investors had to settle down from the agitations which besieged the market ahead of the Fed meeting, yet the meeting did less to signal a high chance of US policy tightening soonest. There was much market sentiment surrounding the release of Japanese trade balance as exports were anticipated to drop by over fifteen percent. Then the next day being Friday we saw that the Japanese yen had added more strength despite slight setbacks in oil prices.


For last week, the USD opened the week at 112.57 going on to set a weekly high of 113.38 and a weekly low of 112.43. The USD still had support on Monday following a very impressive US core inflation data which we saw had climbed up at a speed. On Monday the USDJPY climbed back to its handle placed at 113 ( recording gains amounting to 0.28%) following a rise in Asian trade spanning across forty eight hours. The pair gained support at 112.50. On Monday the Japanese yen came across heavy pressure the speed of Chief of Bank of Japan Kuroda ( as he had emphasized on caution in Japanese monetary polices before the parliament).
The Tokyo Core CPI will affect the pair further this week. We expect a reading not too impressive with an anticipated flat reading placed at 0%. This week as well week price movement for the USDJPY will be greatly connected to data from the Eurozone PMIs as investors will have their eyes set on data on durable goods which is a strong indicator measuring the strength of the American manufacturing sector.
The charts RSI is neutral, same with the MACD while the stochastic gives a sell signal, with the ADX giving a buy signal.
Support lines: 111.82, 111.99, 112.12
Resistance levels: 112.42, 112.59, 112.72





Image: chart showing indicators attached


It is very possible for a solid consolidating arrangement. We don't expect the downtrend to end soonest, but then a correction to a level around 120.69 is likely too.

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EURUSD


Last week Wednesday, we saw that the American dollar had cleared off gains it had earlier recorded against the other principal currencies. This consequently caused it to pull off a high running into a span of three weeks, following data releases in the market which revealed that U.S new home sales had suffered a drop, with the drop even getting far worse than we had earlier expected.


That same Wednesday, we went on to see that the American dollar had located reasonable support following the statement of the President of the Federal Reserve Jeffrey Lacker as the president voiced his opinion that the possibility of a rate hike was well encouraged by the latest news coming out advising the US Central Bank to pay more critical attention to improving on the growth of the economy by means of controlling inflation.
On Friday, the EURUSD dropped noticeably as we saw it has suffered a slide down falling to the least level which we had not earlier seen for about three weeks, this happened in face of a rise in the core inflation in the US; a rise denoted in its largest annual percentage for over thirty six months now. On that Friday, the EURUSD had its trade in a region marked by 1.1069 and 1.0912 on the least. This position of trading describes a down on the session in the percentage magnitude of a little above 0.77% running into about 0.0085.
For four of the most recent five sessions, we saw that the euro had finished at a lower position than the American dollar. If we track back to when the euro had climbed to a three month high sometime at the beginning of February, we see that today the euro has dived down a distance of over 3.1% against the USD.
On the morning of Friday last week, we as saw that the monthly report on consumer spending and personal income had climbed up in a quantity over 0.4% for last month .




The EURUSD opened last week at 1.0914, going on to reach a weekly high of 1.0962 as well as a weekly low of 1.0862.
This week Monday, the American dollar had climbed to a new high for twenty-one days even in face of the US housing sector data ( which really didn't meet our expectations) as very powerful support from the US economic up-arise we saw from Friday last week still continued to support the EURUSD on Monday. On Monday this week, the USD began the day very positively having finished last week very impressively as such made some slight corrections in course of the Asian trading session and then stepping back in its track for a further rise when London session began.
From a rather technical view we see from the daily swing chart that the EURUSD major trend is on the downside. We got to see a noticeable reversal late last week when we saw the pair making a cross through 1.0959 operating then as a swing bottom. 1.1067 will now mark the peak of a new swing as we see trading activities through this top, it becomes very likely that the maintained would soonest turn up. Likely to significantly contribute to movement of the EURUSD this week are the manufacturing PMIs to be released this Tuesday across Europe.
On the weekly chart,we see that the relative strength index gives a sell signal, same sell signal emanates from the stochastic with the MACD also pointing out a sell signal while the ADX happens to be neutral.


Support levels: 1.0638 1.0775 1.0851 ,
Resistance levels1.1064 1.1201 1.1277


EURUSD support and resistance:

EURUSD indicators:





FORECAST
The circumstance of an inflation in Europe is not getting any better as this would surely compel the ECB to make a quick move and any move then would press down the euro further. This makes a sustained downtrend more likely.




GBPUSD


Last week Wednesday, we saw the GBPUSD carrying out trades in a region defined by extremes of 1.4017 ( on the highest) and then 1.3879 (on the lowest). Consequently that Wednesday,the GBPUSD went on to settle down at a point down by over 0.70% on the session. If we remember,ever since that meeting between the European Commission leaders and David Cameron (holding the position of UK prime minister): a meeting that ascended Britain to a more honorable class in the EU; the British pound had dropped down drastically against the dollar; a drop in the weight of over 2.59%. That very last week Wednesday, we saw the pair didn't turn back from its decline owing to the British pound lacking adequate strength. The pound further faced very significant pressure following the declaration by some top British politicians promising to add support to the push for UK to exit the EU.
The next day,we saw the GBP having its consolidation around 1.3910 ( which is also a support level) following a distinct fall of the GBP even an impressive growth in the Retail Sales lacked in providing the needed support for the GBP as attention was shifted to the UK GDP to be released. By Friday last week, we had seen that the USD had come well above the GBP as the pair had dropped down to 1.3891; a decline which even exceeds 0.50% as a possible exit of Britain from the EU bloc continued to worry investors in the market.


Such that by the end of last week, the pair had finished with a weekly high of 1.3946 as well as a weekly low of 1.3836 after it had opened the week at 1.3859.
On Monday this week, the pound was yet still reeling under pressure, even adding to its woes by dropping further against the USD by some more points thus pushing it down to a new low we have not seen in over twelve months now at 1.3840. We saw the GBPUSD last week dropping heavily as there is increased worry in the market over whether the UK would still stay in the EU after the deciding referendum set for June 23 with the USD on Monday adding more strength following support from impressing US GDP data last year's fourth quarter. For the next few days of this week, major focus would be addressed to data on Markit PMI"s concerning Construction, Services and Manufacturing in the UK and then possibly to affect the GBPUSD further is Wednesday's speech by the deputy governor of the BOE (bank of England) as he addresses BOE's next monetary policy moves.
On the chart, we see that indicators like the relative strength index (RSI) giving a neutral signal while the MACD is giving a sell signal quite contrary to a buy from the stochastics and then the ADX pointing to buy,


Support levels:1.3261 1.3557 1.3713
Resistance levels: 1.4165 1.4461 1.4617


GBPUSD chart





Forecast
Fears pertaining to whether the UK could exit the EU has majorly been hitting hard on the pair, with the dollar impressing after receiving support from positive data. As such it is more likely the trend wouldn't change soonest as we expect the GBP to further drop points against the dollar should we see a correction in the area of 1.42.


USDJPY


Last week Tuesday saw the Japanese yen adding more strength against the American dollar. Fundamental economic news centered around the gross domestic product of Japan revealed a setback in the Japanese economy. In spite of such occurrences, the yen still managed to borrow support from an encouraging Japanese Trade Balance. Also at that very interval, we saw impressive data on initial jobless claims released in the US were the indicator revealed a sharp drop in initial jobless claims in the US to 262,000.


Consequently on Friday last week, we saw the yen losing strength in Asia as there was a disappointing drop in the data released on consumer prices with a discouraging core measure that was flat; totally going against general market sentiment of the core measure dropping a little by say 0.2%. By Friday the yen recorded some gains as investors in the market kept very close watch for the statement emanating from the meeting in Shanghai where there was a G20 meeting. Following the data release, the USDJPY dropped a distance down by over 0.14%. But by Friday, the USD had dropped a little against the JPY with investors attaching more concerns on the oil market thus USDJPY dived down to 112.75 on Friday, a drop to the extent of over 0.02%


So that by the time last week finished,the USDJPY had added on over 148 points over the seven days such that it finished very close to the line put at 114. By Monday, the Japanese yen attempted a little recovery at the start of the US session cutting down on losses drawing support from a more encouraging risk sentiment. After dropping to 112.75 which takes the position of the daily low, the USDJPY enjoyed a small recovery as it consequently got a positive climb up. The pair went on to trade on Monday at a 113.10 showing there is still some recovery expected for the day. The USDJPY would likely be affected this well by the Chicago PMI to be released from the US with a further data on home sales in sight. On the chart,mew see the RSI giving a sell signal, the stochastic also giving a sell signal, same could be said for the ADX and the MACD.



Support levels:112.74 112.80 112.86
Resistance levels 112.98 113.04 113.10

USDJPY support and resistance and indicators:



Forecast
There is big uncertainty as to what the USDJPY holds but then if you consider the zero inflation of Japan and the yen gathering strength as well as oil improving with more encouraging risk sentiment, it is possible we may have a low placed at somewhere around 110.97 but then for now the trend is neutral.

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 7- 11

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EURUSD
Last week Wednesday, the EURUSD got to a point which is a 21-day low. This came following sound US employment data suggesting likely growth in the US labour market. Further more, the EURUSD traded around 1.0873, after which the EURUSD settled at about 1.0868. This is a fall of over 0.0016 ( for the session, this fall is about 0.058%). Looking back into the last fourteen sessions, the EUR has closed on the lower side of the USD nine times. The euro suffered a great drop since the 11th of last month when we saw the EUR post a 12-week high ; this drop is about 3.9%.

Earlier on Tuesday, the EURUSD had dropped down a bit, as the pair suffered a drop coming down to a 4-week low. This happened as there was a release of data on eurozone manufacturing which grew at a very slow rate. This slow rate is notably the slowest we have seen in the last twelve months. This greatly increased the need for the European Central Bank to adopt relevant monetary polices. We greatly expect to see these policies from their next meeting due to hold this week.

Moving on, on Thursday last week, we saw the pair climb up quickly over 1.08. This rise happened as investors didn't react much to economic data coming from the US.

Then on Friday, the American dollar dropped down a little against a host of the principal currencies. We were not really expecting this as we had earlier on seen reports show that jobs created in the US had beat expectations. But as it turned out to be a very brief indication a recovery of the US economy, Thus the EURUSD enjoyed gains which went up to 1.003, this is a climb of about 0.428%. Looking back, we have seen that the EURUSD hadn't moved past 1.10 this month. The only exception to this was the rise we saw from the EURUSD last week Friday as traders in the market saw weren't really convinced of a possible interest rate hike this March.
Thus by morning trade in the US session, we saw the EURUSD moving past 1.0905 climbing up to 1.1012; this is a rise in the EURUSD which is more than 0.50%.
The EURUSD opened last week at 1.0990 after which it posted. a weekly high of 1.1024 and then a weekly low of 1.0940. On Monday, we saw the American dollar trying to make gains against other principal currencies in the market. The American dollar got good support from employment data we saw from last week Friday. This data showed that there would possibly be no rate hike soonest. On the other hand, we saw the euro today getting weaker following data form Germany. This data showed that German factory orders had dropped for February. Consequently, the euro fell against the dollar with the pair dropping down to 1.0957, this is decline of over 0.43%. In that very December meeting, the ECB adopted a stimulus package which was way smaller than expected.
From the chart, it could be seen that the Relative Strength Index is neutral same as the stochastic oscillators while the MACD and ADX give signal to buy.

Support levels: 1.0655, 1.0740, 1.0872
Resistance levels: 1.1089, 1.1174, 1.1306




Looking at it from this way, we believe that the Mario Draghi of the ECB will try to do more than they did when the ECB met last December; and this time announce very important monetary policies aimed at keeping the euro down against the dollar. This way we see that for increased inflation ( knowing that it is the ECB's target to increase exports), a weaker exchange rate must be ensured. And from the US, we don't really see new hikes in interest rates from the Fed soonest. So in this light, it is more likely the trend will be down.


GBPUSD

On Tuesday last week, The British Pound had not stopped its very weak rise in course of the trading session in Asia. The pair had climbed on top of 1.3977 following this with a slight drop as report of data on UK Markit Manufacturing PMI was to be released. The data which was coming from China had revealed that there was a further drop in the Chinese economy while the general economy of Europe was getting better as oil prices were getting steady . This resulted in investors looking out for possible moves from the ECB when they meet next.

By Thursday, we had seen the Sterling go up against the American dollar; moving up above 1.4192. This was after the pair had lost over forty-seven pips during an Asian trading session. Following this, the pair added on more strength.

At the end of the week on Friday, we saw that much has happened to the GBPUSD as it had climbed up by over 297 points. This climb occurring in face of a falling dollar which came under pressure many times owing to US data which didn't meet expectations.

Last week, the GBPUSD opened the week at 1.4211, recording a weekly low of 1.4135 and a weekly high of 1.4284. On Monday, GBPUSD went on climbing to a high of two weeks after it experienced increased momentum. It appeared the USD was not on a recovery from its its weakness in course of the US session. The British pound remarkably turned around from its losses as it added over 135 pips in course of the intraday trading. This turn around brought the pair to 1.4282 which it posted as a peak. Consequently, the pair traded around 1.4266. This point is a climb of over 0.29% for the day. Thus, this caused the GBPUSD to experience a rise (this is the 6th straight trading day the GBPUSD has posted a rise).The pair went on to trade in the region of 1.4166.

Very likely to affect the GBPUSD this week is data on manufacturing production, if the data comes out contrary to what we expect, we are sure it is going to hit the GBPUSD straight away and greatly affect market direction of the pair. Although the last releases on this data have been 3 drops coming after each other straight yet general investor sentiment favours an improved January report. This could come at over 0.19%.
On the chart we see that the relative strength index is giving a buy signal, same as the stochastic oscillator, while the ADX and the MACD give a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.3548, 1.3691, 1.3960
Resistance levels:1.4372, 1.4515, 1.4784

GBPUSD indicators:


Forecast:


It is not really very likely that the Federal Reserve could pursue an interest rate hike this March. With the recent job reports from the US, it is likely that the USD could yet move up further. The conclusion is the trend for the GBPUSD may likely be bearish.




USDJPY

On Tuesday, it was generally expected that the USDJPY would further drop. The pair had already been unsuccessful in holding on to its gains on top of13.00. The next day on Wednesday, the pair struggled, only making a break when it touched fresh highs which we have not seen from the USDJPY since the 17th last month. Earlier Wednesday, the USD looked like it gathering strength in face of data from PMIs (manufacturing) released on Tuesday which were encouraging.

Going into the figures,we saw that the USDJPY for Wednesday had initiated a correction (which took an upward direction) as the USDJPY was unsuccessful at its move to break down 111.00. This 111.00 which was a key level. The failure of the USDJPY to break 111.00 happened twice. The pair gained reasonable support as the USD got stronger on support from data in the United States. And then we saw the Japanese yen coming under pressure for a longer period of time in face of discouraging macroeconomic data from Japan which fell below expectations.

On Thursday, the pair moved past 114.26. 114.26 here was the day's high.Despite this, investors generally weren't convinced by the prospects of the USDJPY going up further as spikes were taken as a pointer to sell. Thus by the end of the week on Friday, we could say the pair had shown impressive volatility yet it didn't really end the week with very big changes. The USDJPY had its opening for the week,the USDJPY went on to turn around ,rising up to highs put at around 113.70 with no deviation in the resistance point which comes at 114.65 for the week.

Last week, the USDJPY opened the week at 113.95 which happened to be its weekly high and then posting a weekly low of 113.23.Owing to the fact that the Bank of Japan didn't make any significant move, we saw on Monday that the yen had put on more strength. This in addition to the lack of action from the Bank of Japan ( as well as stocks which are on a slide), made the yen move up against other principal currencies in the market. Data coming Japan revealed that the governor of the Bank of Japan looking very hopeful for the Japanese economy. The Bank of Japan seems to be comfortable with the negative interest policy. The pair thus suffered a decline, dropping to around 113.38 and then trying to start a recovery. Thus we saw the pair had declined by over 0.12% leaving it down at 113.62.
Likely to affect it this week is data to be released on yen gross domestic product of Japan, there is a more solid prospects that it could drop; and if this eventually happens, it will be more likely for the Japanese yen to experience fresh pressure.
On the chart,we see that the Relative strength index gives a sell signal which is the same signal from the stochastic ADX and the MACD.

Support levels: 110.02, 110.09, 112.42
Resistance levels: 114.82, 115.89, 117.22


USDJPY indicators:


Forecast:
The trend is more likely to be bullish given that the data from the US have been impressive of late with the Bank of Japan coming under strong pull to bring on more easing measures.

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EURUSD
Data released Monday on Industrial Production revealed that for the first month of the year, the indicator had increased by about 2.0% which is very far from the -1.0% we saw for December last year. This has supported the euro keeping in from falling much. Since the day began, we see that the pair has not traded far from the region of 1.1110 region. The daily chart points sustained decline in the EURUSD as even on the H1 chart, we see the pair trading below a simple moving average which had its period put at 20. Earlier on Monday, there was no clear direction of the trend as the pair look to have consolidation at around 1.1100. Looking critically at the trend so far,we can say it is more bearish. As the simple moving average earlier mentioned looks to move higher; even looking to get support at the region of 1.1088.

The dollar in early trade sessions didn't suffer significant drop as investors have not stopped focusing on the FED meeting to hold this week. The pair in course of trading had dropped to 1.1096, this about a drop of 0.44%.The euro seem to be affected following a cut in interest rates by the ECB to fresh levels. As we saw the European Central Bank had reduced its benchmark rate to zero; previously it was at 0.05%.The stochastic is showing an overbought condition, with the MACD still pointing out to further possible drop in the pair.


Looking to the future of the pair, the FED meeting on Wednesday is very crucial. Though we don't really expect interest rates to be raised but then given the latest indications of a weakening global economy,it is possible we may see interest decisions from the FED this Wednesday. It is even more likely as US jobs situation has not stopped strengthening.

Support levels:1.1052, 1.1068, 1.1076
Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1116, 1.1124

EURUSD support resistance and indicators:


General trading on the EURUSD today has been more of selling, as the pair struggled to maintain stay around the 1.1100. But then with the sustained trading activity around this region, if we see a break, then it is more likely it would go back to somewhere around 1.1079. This is more likely as traders ignored the data released today on EMU’s Industrial Production. But for the immediate picture of the EURUSD, the trend looks to be a downtrend for some time.

GBPUSD


The pair could not hold on to its move to recover from a decline today as it traded in the region of 1.4378. This was after oil price sell-off came up again. This region is close to its daily low. The pair consequently traded at 1.4353 which is a drop more than -0.18%. This was following its trade at 1.4336 where is retested lows for the session of Early Europe. As European stocks rose higher, we saw the GBPUSD locating support close to 1.4337. The GBPUSD went down to 1.4316 which is a drop of over 0.46%.

During the trading day today we saw that direction of trade look to point to a possible uptrend. This was seen as the pair touched 1.3835 which was a notable low from last month when the market's reaction to a possible exit of the UK from the EU was exaggerated. From the H4 chart, we see that piece is doing well on top of the exponential moving average with period at 200 at the region of 1.4258. Then the simple moving average with period at 20 going towards 1.4289.

For now, the pair has not strengthened as it is still weak from pressure of the situation of oil prices earlier mentioned. In the situation of oil prices, the Brent lost by over 1.433 while the US oil went down too by over -0.187%. This greatly weakened the GBPUSD. The pair had shown retracement from 1.4435 which was a high it had set some three days ago. Then it went on to consolidate its most recent gains.


Support level: 1.4281, 1.4293, 1.4301
Resistance levels: 1.4321, 1.4333, 1.4341


GBPUSD support, resistance and indicators:


From the technical angle, we don't see this downside really lasting long. Investors are on the search for dips now, as they see this as nice points to open a position in the pair. Most technical indicators however shows that the bearish trend could be brief; most particularly as price has not yet come above a simple moving average with the period set at 20. On our chart, the RSI is giving a sell signal while the stochastic is showing a region of been oversold and then the MACD giving a sell signal which is the same from the ADX.

Looking into the future of the pair, for us to see prices going up to the region of 1.4490, at least pair must first be able to consolidate above 1.4409.

Also another possible happening for the pair is this. For a day moving average whose period is set at 55, if the pair could overcome this, then it may likely get on top of 1.4663. This region marks its high for last month. Similarly, if we happen to see a drop from 1.7189, it is more likely a downtrend ( on the long term) is starting again.

For now, many investors don't favour the dollar as few are willing to take the risk to buy it. The pair this traded around 1.4369 today. There is sure to be more movement in this pair on wednesday when the United Kingdom will publish its most recent data on employment. We are expecting the unemployment figures to drop. If this happens, surely the GBPUSD would climb up.


USDJPY

On Monday, we see the pair found it difficult to hold on to gains it posted above 113.98 as it was trading within a tight range. In course of the Asian session today, we saw the Japanese yen dropping in strength while the Nikkei rose up.

There is the chance that the Bank of Japan will likely postpone its move to reduce interest rates on Tuesday. Even up to till now, it is clear the USDJPY is still feeling the effect of the shocking move of the Bank of Japan to start using negative interest rates. For now, yet many investors feel that the Bank of Japan will try to improve their economy in the months to come by expanding their monetary stimulus. This is even more likely when we consider that the move the bank of Japan made in January didn't stop the rise in the Japanese yen. It is after Tuesday policy statement from the Bank of Japan that will give traders any indication that the bank could be dropping its negative interests any time soon.

From the technical side, price action for the pair is still in the region of 113.48. This is on top of fibonacci retracement level which comes at 24%. This went on to form a support. The trend is more neutral though there is the chance that it could slide further down as most technical indicators on the H4 chart not showing a clear direction of the trend.In face of this, before we can see a very clear trend, it is most likely price would rise above 114.58 which seems to happen considering the Meeting of the Federal Reserve which will come on Wednesday.

Support levels: 113.50, 113.55, 113.67
Resistance levels: 113.84, 113.89, 114.01


USDJPY support, resistance and indicators:

The Japanese yen has been looking to touch 114.04. If it does, then it could go dropping down to 111.87 and then go up back to 113.24.
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